September 2026 - Network Call: El Niño: What Next and How to Prepare
Overview of the September Network Call
Our September Network Call focused on the impacts of the current El Niño event and wider climate change risks, particularly the likelihood of increased storms, wetter weather, rising temperatures and further heatwaves over the coming months.
The discussion highlighted the need to move beyond awareness and towards action, exploring what individuals, organisations and communities can do to prepare for and respond to climate-related emergencies. A key theme was supporting those who are disproportionately affected by these risks and strengthening community resilience through partnership working.
Summary of Meeting Transcript
Main Topic Speakers
Russ Turner (Flood Forecasting Centre) - Winter Flood Risk and Climate Outlook
Russ outlined the autumn and winter outlook, highlighting the interaction between drought recovery, catchment conditions and the current El Niño event.
Although the 2025 drought officially ended in March 2026, some areas continue to experience drought-related impacts, meaning communities are entering winter with multiple climate-related risks.
Flood impacts have been recorded across every county in England and Wales over the past three years, with some communities still recovering from previous flooding events.
Recent rainfall has supported catchment recovery, but conditions vary significantly across the country and local flood risks will differ.
Seasonal forecasts suggest:
A higher likelihood of a warmer-than-average autumn.
A greater chance of a wetter-than-average three-month period than a dry one.
Potential for above-average rainfall during autumn and winter.
Russ explained that El Niño is an important climate driver, but it cannot reliably predict exactly what weather the UK will experience.
The overall outlook indicates a heightened flood risk this winter, although impacts will vary depending on local conditions, flood history and levels of community preparedness.
Organisations were encouraged to make use of flood forecasting, warning and preparedness services to support community resilience over the coming months.
Russ concluded that communities recently affected by flooding may be particularly vulnerable and should take the current period as an opportunity to strengthen preparedness and resilience.
Emma Howard Boyd (National Heat Risk Commission) - Heat Resilience, El Niño and Community Preparedness
Emma highlighted the growing need to prepare for climate-related risks at both community and national levels.
It was noted that the UK has already experienced five official heatwaves this year, demonstrating the increasing impact of climate change.
Described heat as a "silent killer" and explained that heatwaves often trigger wider risks, including drought, wildfires and flooding following heavy rainfall.
Emma stressed that many climate responses remain reactive and that climate adaptation needs the same long-term planning, investment and strategic focus that has been given to flood management.
It was noted that the current El Niño signal represents a valuable window of opportunity to prepare for potential severe weather this winter.
Referring to the 2015-16 floods, the speaker warned that while extreme impacts are not guaranteed, organisations should take the possibility of severe storms and flooding seriously.
Organisations were encouraged to work closely with communities on simple, practical preparedness actions and to share learning and examples from elsewhere.
Highlighted a gap between what communities are experiencing and what is reaching national decision-makers, arguing that community voices need to play a larger role in resilience planning.
Emma welcomed signs that government is giving greater attention to preparedness and climate resilience, including planned communications campaigns and investment in making hospitals more resilient to heat.
Examples were cited of communities adapting during recent heatwaves, including hospitals managing overheating and public buildings acting as cooling spaces.
Emma stressed that future investment decisions in schools, hospitals and infrastructure must account for increasing climate risks to avoid creating greater vulnerability in future.
Organisations were encouraged to contribute evidence and practical insights to the National Heat Risk Commission's ongoing work, focusing on how preparedness measures can be implemented and funded effectively.
Emma concluded by emphasising that many solutions are already known, and the challenge is now turning knowledge into action while making the most of the current opportunity to prepare.
Key takeaways
Communities are entering winter facing multiple climate-related risks, including flood risk, drought recovery and the potential impacts of El Niño.
Forecasts suggest a greater likelihood of wetter conditions, making preparedness and resilience planning particularly important over the coming months.
Russ and Emma emphasised that this is a window of opportunity to prepare, with organisations encouraged to take practical action now rather than wait for impacts to occur.
Community organisations play a vital role in supporting preparedness, sharing trusted information and helping those disproportionately impacted by climate-related emergencies.
The focus now needs to be on turning awareness into action, while ensuring long-term investment and planning build resilience to future climate risks.
Summary of Zoom chat & wider insights
Participants highlighted the importance of translating national preparedness messages into practical actions that communities can take locally, particularly as the UK prepares for potential winter impacts linked to climate risks.
Community organisations, faith groups and other trusted local networks were seen as critical partners in delivering preparedness messages and supporting vulnerable communities.
There was strong support for making preparedness information accessible through a variety of channels and formats, including community-led communications.
Many participants shared concerns about inconsistent engagement between statutory agencies and the voluntary, community and faith sector, highlighting the need for stronger relationships, collaboration and information sharing.
Discussion highlighted the importance of combining government action with community-level preparedness, ensuring individuals, organisations and communities all play a role in building resilience.
Partners welcomed opportunities to continue sharing resources, evidence and good practice, with broad agreement that the current period should be used to strengthen both winter preparedness and longer-term climate resilience.